Clearly there are common themes through this hobby and many of us find ourselves on different paths or at different places along the same path as we build projects. There are some general statements we probably all can make, and while Joe seems to be right on track with a lot of points, I think there are also some forces at work that are opposite what he states.
1) The high end, original-paint, rare-bike collector market is hot. Always was and probably always will be, for these best-of-the -best, documented, pristine examples of whatever make and model. Top quality road bikes, elusive vintage Schwinns still in boxes, unrestored Phantoms, whatever your cup of tea, there's a perfect, highly valued original out there. But maybe there's some softening here too- the economic situation is really bad all over, and a lot of the people that collected many of these bikes have cut back or decided to liquidate. They may not be for sale where you live but there are a lot of bikes out there for sale, as well as all kinds of other toys (boats, motorcycles, hot rods, RV's, what-have-you). I'd say we've seen the peak of any of these markets, and prices are down across the board, 20-50% even for the best stuff. These are good investments, solid collector value, and if not ridden/used/assembled, will retain their value forever.
2) The bikes and parts just below this, the "nice rider" bikes, the good restorations, the special but undocumented bikes, the repros- these are suffering price drops roughly equal to how bad things are where you live. Coupled with never-before-seen shipping prices, especially for whole bikes, otherwise good, valuable bikes and rideable classics are down in price quite a lot. A great many have been put on the market to raise cash for folks who lost jobs, some are liquidated at fire-sale prices, all in all the market is down and this is driving some collectors to part some great bikes to maximize the dollars they return. It is however a great time to buy if you have the space, the time, and the money.
3) The riders, the beat up bikes, and anything without a pedigree (i.e. a Sears bike, vs a Schwinn for example) are either never selling or are being let go for a loss or below cost. The price of putting one of these back on the road, even if they're near-free, is about equal to the "market" value (call it the "craigslist price".) What will it sell for in a few typical days on your local craigslist? I think a lot of bikes from 40's to 90's are out there for sale, languishing because no one is buying them, period. If I gave you a typical 27" 10-spd or a rusty 26" 3-spd, could you fix it and make even a dollar on it? A lot of times right now that answer is no. It's no if the bike needs too much, for sure, unless you're near a city with a strong market (NYC, Philly, Chicago?) You might put 8 hours or more into a restoration that you can only get $50 for. Unless you just love doing it or have 50 bikes around ready to sell, it might not make sense to do it.
4) Ebay has changed its fee structure and PAypal requirements in ways that drove a lot of sellers out. This combined with high shipping has resulted in more first-time sellers and fewer knowledgeable ones- many got fed up and decided to take their chances with the spam on Craigslist. I also think that the whole "down market" has made a few people decide to just hold rather than sell anything at a loss. Also, hate to say it but the Ebay selling practice of bulk selling of repro stuff, or new junk stuff with keywords like "fits Schwinn" or "not Schwinn" in the titles, makes it frustrating to find parts needed for any project. A lot of times, if I do find an item, the shipping price is enough to kill the deal in my eyes. I know I have to bite the bullet one way or another if I need something, but in many cases I'll hold off. I imagine I'm not alone and that has probably driven a lot of good guys out of the market, to just wait out this storm we all seem caught up in.
I wish everyone in this hobby or business well with whatever they're doing to survive. We may not ever see $3000 Lemon Peelers again, or $5000 Whizzers, but in some sense they never left. The barn finds, the collector sell-offs will probably continue, but it will certainly pay to be in touch with your local scrap guys to make sure that some of the old ones stay out of that metal bin. Unfortunately the towns have their rules about what happens once stuff is dropped off. It never hurts to ask though or even offer finders fees to the guys at the transfer stations- leave a card or a note if that's how you want to go about collecting and saving bikes. If it never goes IN the bin, well, you don't have to pull it OUT now do ya? Call up the guys who advertise locally for scrap- they're usually very happy to sell bikes to you for $5 vs. the 50c they probably get for the metal weight. And use the tools at your disposal if you wish to get free bikes- you will never get any if you don't ask. Advertise on Freecycle in your area, advertise on Craigslist, use the Trader type papers to your advantage.
Last, and this might be off the original topic but I think is related: work to improve cycling in your area. If you are lucky enough to have a local bicycling advisory committee in your town, check it out. Get info from your state DOT about bike lanes, state routes, bike trails, paths, rails-to-trails plans, off-road trails and areas, and find out if your city has any such plans. (Each state has a person designated somewhere who is in charge of this, or they may not receive all of their federal transportation funding). Work to make public transportation include provisions for bikes (racks on buses, allowing bicycles on commuter trains, adding racks at stations, etc). There is money being given to towns, and again you will not get what you do not ask for. Less than 1 year ago, we formed a new cycling group here and already we have people at work on many of these projects. If you have extra time, some work like this for the common good can come out of it.
I wish everyone well, keep ratting and riding!
--Rob Bareiss (NLCTVWguy)
