Western Flyer Shelby? help

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I found this Western Flyer at auction recently. I assumed it was possibly prewar because of the straight down bar.

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The serial number is P531663. I thought maybe it was a frankenbike with an amateur restoration. Then I found a 1937 Western Flyer catalog online that said the base models were built by Shelby and pictured a chainring like this.

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Am I on the right rack? Can it be aged with the serial number? Your help is appreciated! Thanks!
 
You are correct that (most of) it is prewar. The chainwheel is Shelby. But I do not think the frame is Shelby built.
 
I appreciate your response. Does this photo of the dropouts help? If not Shelby, what might it be? Thanks!

 
Did Colson ever build for Western Flyer? In searching online the 1938-1939 Colson Imperials appear to have a similar frame design.
 
Colson built a frame in this style, and so did Schwinn and Cleveland welding. I am starting to think that may be the long and tall Colson built frame. Does it have a 20in seat tube?
 
This is a Shelby frame!

Shelby produced several frame variations (Rainbows, Straightbars, and most commonly Scimitars) on their second tier series of frames and this is one of them. Virtually every manufacturer produced a variation of the “rainbow pattern” double parallel curve tube design. The details of this frame are all Shelby in nature, including the upper fender bridge, the seat binder details, the particular curve of the seat stays, and the pattern and attachment style of the rear toe plates. Shelby did build a small number of frames with drop stand ears and the shape of the fin and the cut shape of the toe plate are distinct and unique to Shelby.

The serial number is also definitely in the pattern of a Shelby serial number and not that of a Colson, Schwinn, Westfield, or a Cleveland Welding product. Unfortunately I do not have a decoding for the serial number pertaining to the build date of this frame but I would guess that it is circa 1938/39 but possibly later, up to 1942.

The multi-plate fork is also not normally associated with Shelby but actually turns up frequently on obscure Shelby’s so it is also probably original to this bike.
 
First, to answer a previous question, the seat tube is 17.5".

RMS 37, thanks for your in depth reply! Truly appreciated. As I look again at photos and old product catalogs displayed online I see a strong resemblance to the base model 1938 Western Flyer "Pace-Maker", in the double bar configuration. I assume this would fit your description of "second tier" series of frames. The 1937 and 1939 base models appear slightly different, at least in the catalog, but also taking into account that these were drawings, not photos in the catalogs I'm speaking of. The chain ring on this bike appears in the 1937 catalog. It is not as attractive or "artistic" as the other Shelby rings, so is it the "second tier" also?

Thanks again for your well-explained response.
 
By "second tier", I am referring to the fact that prewar Shelby 26” balloon bikes were generally built around two very different series production frames. The more deluxe models were produced using variations of the airflow style frame with the bifurcated top tube. The less expensive models were built on variations of the basic frame you have which has a single top tube that is mated to a lugged joint at the intersection of the seat tube and the seat stays. Between these two frames Shelby constructed their line of bicycles and individual parts might appear on either line based on the specific model of the bicycle.
 
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